Download Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - by Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier PDF

Demography

By Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier

ISBN-10: 9048135524

ISBN-13: 9789048135523

Inhabitants development slowed the world over within the final many years of the twentieth century, altering considerably our view of the longer term. The twenty first century is probably going to work out the tip to global inhabitants development and develop into the century of inhabitants getting older, marked via low fertility and ever-increasing existence expectancy. those tendencies have caused many to foretell a depressing destiny attributable to an exceptional monetary burden of inhabitants getting older. In reaction, industrialized countries might want to enforce powerful social and fiscal guidelines and courses. this can be the ultimate quantity in a sequence of 3. The papers integrated discover many examples and enhance the root for potent financial and social guidelines through investigating the commercial, social, and demographic results of the adjustments within the buildings of inhabitants and kin. those results contain alterations in financial habit, either in hard work and fiscal markets, and in regards to saving and intake, and intergenerational transfers of cash and care.

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Extra resources for Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3 (International Studies in Population)

Example text

The aim of GIP is to estimate a series of mortality and migration parameters that correspond to the period for which birth and death counts are available and, simultaneously, a series of population age structures that are consistent with the data and the parameters. ) First, Oeppen expresses the general equations for population movement, defining the population aged a at time t, Na,t, as a function of Na−1,t−1 together with the death probability and the emigration rate, both at age a. Births in (t − 1,t) are related to N0,t by means of the appropriate survival probability and migration rate.

Populations agées et révolution grise. Bruxelles: Editions Ciaco. Macunovich, D. (1999). The fortunes of one’s birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labour market in the United States. Population Economics, 12(2), 215–272. New Shorter Oxford English Dictionary. (1993). New shorter oxford english dictionary, 2 vols. Oxford: Clarendon. Pool, I. (1999). People (= population) and public policy in New Zealand. NZ Population Review, 25, 57–79. Pool, I. (2000). Vers un modèle de la ‘transition age-structurelle’: Une conséquence mais aussi une composante de la transition démographique.

After about 50 years, the initial differences were washed out. In other words, GIP-BP results are not reliable for roughly the first 50 years, due to the weak ergodicity principle. GIP-BP shares this characteristic with IP, unless the initial age structure is known for IP. It is surprising that GIP-BP produces reliable empirical results, in spite of the weak ergodicity problem mentioned above. One possible explanation is that the number of feasible solutions is severely restricted by the fact that age-specific mortality depends on only one scaling parameter.

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