Download Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas by Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten PDF
By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson
Uncertainty research is a key component to nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised via the authors during this quantity, and the function that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. insurance comprises: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock methods, compliance and verification concerns, and the function of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.
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Extra info for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading
For purposes of this discussion, we make two assumptions about uncertainty adjustments for compliance purposes: (1) that the approach taken to the adjustment depends on the environmental goal for which it is undertaken; and (2) that the means of adjustment should employ a statistically valid method. 1, we explore the implications of two different environmental goals and the two different definitions of an adjustment they would suggest. 2, we look at the criteria that the uncertainty adjustment would need to meet in order to be implemented (assuming that it would be politically feasible) and the implications of these criteria for the characteristics of the uncertainty analysis itself.
Sussman & J. V. 2007 own self-interest; (4) it should be administratively feasible to estimate and use; (5) the quality of the uncertainty estimate should be high enough to warrant the additional compliance costs that its use in an adjustment factor may impose on countries; and (6) it should attempt to address all types of inventory uncertainty. Currently, inventory uncertainty estimates for national greenhouse gas inventories do not have these characteristics. For example, the information used to develop quantitative uncertainty estimates for national inventories is often based on expert judgments, which are, by definition, subjective rather than objective, and therefore difficult to review and compare.
Further, the practical design of a potential factor to adjust inventory estimates using uncertainty estimates would require policy makers to (1) identify clear environmental goals; (2) define these goals precisely in terms of relationships among important variables (such as emissions estimate, commitment level, or statistical confidence); and (3) develop a quantifiable adjustment mechanism that reflects these environmental goals. , accuracy, transparency, completeness, and consistency). Abstract International policy makers and climate researchers use greenhouse gas emissions inventory estimates in a variety of ways.