Download A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population by Stanley K. Smith PDF


By Stanley K. Smith

ISBN-10: 9400775504

ISBN-13: 9789400775503

This booklet specializes in the technique and research of country and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main frequent information resources and alertness innovations for 4 kinds of projection equipment: cohort-component, development extrapolation, structural types, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants progress, assets of knowledge, the formation of assumptions, the advance of review standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of varied projection tools and can pay designated consciousness to the original difficulties that represent small-area projections. The authors supply functional suggestions to demographers, planners, marketplace analysts, and others known as directly to build kingdom and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing precise populations, distinct situations, and insufficient or unreliable info. They describe ideas for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., university enrollment, households). They talk about the position of judgment and the significance of the political context within which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for selection making in an international of competing calls for and constrained assets. This finished booklet will offer readers with an figuring out not just of the mechanics of the main widespread inhabitants projection equipment, but in addition of the various advanced matters affecting their development, interpretation, assessment, and use.​

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Additional info for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

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Providing practical guidance is the most important objective of this book. 2 Geographic Focus Much of the research on population projections has focused on projections at the national level (Bongaarts and Bulatao 2000; Cohen 1986; Hyndman and Booth 2008; Keyfitz 1981; Lee and Tuljapurkar 1994; Shang 2012; Stoto 1983). Although this research has been very valuable, conclusions based on studies of national projections are not always applicable to states and local areas. There are several reasons why this might be true.

There is a tremendous amount of variability among states, especially for net migration. , more births than deaths) between 1990 and 2000 and all but West Virginia between 2000 and 2010, but not all had positive net migration. Thirty-seven states had positive net migration in both time periods, three had negative net migration in both time periods, and 10 changed signs between the two decades. Two of the most dramatic changes occurred in Illinois and Michigan, as both states had net in-migration between 1990 and 2000 but substantial net out-migration between 2000 and 2010.

It is at the subnational level, however, that migration attains its greatest importance. Migration levels vary tremendously from one place to another in the United States and—for any given place—are subject to large, sudden changes over time. Migration affects not only the total population of an area, but its age, sex, race, income, education, and other characteristics as well. Chapter 6 discusses several migration definitions and measures, sources of data, the determinants of migration, and alternative approaches to projecting migration.

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